Dubay's 15th "Proof"

It's been a long time since I've thought of Yoga Instructor & Flat Earth Promoter Eric Dubay. I see that he has a new flat earth movie out repeating many of the claims from his first, "200 Proofs..." movie. Of course most of those "proofs" aren't proofs, many are just unsubstantiated assertions, some are his failures-to-understand being presented as fact, and some are outright fabrications. Since he spends around 40 seconds per "proof" there's little to no time spent citing references or examining any claim.

I'd like to take a few minutes to look at one of the failures-to-understand that is claimed as a proof of earth's flatness. Dubay claims as his 15th "proof":

"15) If the Earth were truly a sphere 25,000 miles in circumference, airplane pilots would have to constantly correct their altitudes downwards so as to not fly straight off into “outer space;” a pilot wishing to simply maintain their altitude at a typical cruising speed of 500 mph, would have to constantly dip their nose downwards and descend 2,777 feet (over half a mile) every minute! Otherwise, without compensation, in one hour’s time the pilot would find themselves 31.5 miles higher than expected."

There are a lot of things wrong with this claim.

A) It relies on the earth being flat: The use of the word 'downward' is problematic. It has different definitions in a flat earth and a globe earth. On a globe earth, downward is a local phenomenon - towards the centre of the globe. A plane need not descend toward the centre of the globe to maintain its altitude. That's moronic.

On a flat earth, downward is an absolute - towards 'down.' For Dubay's argument to be understandable you must assume that the globe exists in a place that has an 'absolute down.' And that place with an absolute down is a flat earth. The only possible circumstance for Dubay's claim is if his airplane takes off from the "top" of a gravityless globe that is resting in the gravity field of a flat earth. One may surmise, that since pilots don't constantly correct downwards, our globe is not sitting on a flat earth.

B) It relies on bad math: Dubay uses the formula from his "Proof #9" as the foundation for the claims made in "Proof #15." As part of "Proof #9" Dubay introduces the idea that curvature of a globe earth must be 8 inches downward multiplied by the square of the mileage from the observer. This is the formula he uses to derive his claims of excessive altitude in "Proof 15". If you passed Grade 10 math you might remember that this is the formula for a parabola. If you didn't remember, you can be forgiven. You probably haven't needed to think about it since your last math test. But presenting it as part of this mathematical based 'proof' is not forgivable.

C) Dubay misunderstands/misrepresents what his bad math says: Dubay derives an average slope between 2 points on a parabolic curve, then presents an interpolation of that slope as if it has some 'real world' meaning. It doesn't.

  Since no serious person has claimed that the earth is a parabola, and this slope only has meaning in relation to the 'absolute down' of a flat earth, it is a meaningless claim. It could easily be reworded as, "because the earth is flat the earth can't be a globe." And that's not a "Proof." (See the addendum for the math, if you like.)

D) It's disingenuous: Dubay uses a hodgepodge of 'flat earth physics' and imagery as the criteria to test globe earth claims. This, once again, starts with the assumption that the earth is flat and concludes with, "a globe earth doesn't make sense when the earth is flat."

If a person was honestly seeking truth the starting point might be something like: "These 2 models are incompatible. They can't both be true. They could both be false. Is there a way to test these models that doesn't depend on either model as a starting point?" The answer to the question is, "yes." But Mr. Dubay seems reluctant to explore that path choosing, instead, to always start from the assumption that the earth is flat.

Addendum

Extrapolate: extend (a graph, curve, or range of values) by inferring unknown values from trends in the known data.

Interpolate: In the mathematical field of numerical analysis, interpolation is a type of estimation, a method of constructing new data points within the range of a discrete set of known data points.

Dubay used his claim of being 31.5 miles too high 500 miles after departure then divided that by 60 to get an average value: "2,777 feet (over half a mile) every minute!" But because the slope of a parabola changes constantly the slope of a line between any 2 points can't be interpolated or extrapolated to give any useful information.

To make the math a little easier I'll speed up Mr. Dubay's plane from 500MPH to 600MPH. Now it's easy to see that 600mi/60min = 10mi/min and 10mi/60sec = 1/6mi/sec. Let's plug that back into the parabolic formula

 y = 8in * (1/6)^2 = 8/36in = 2/9in 

And there you have another solution to the parabolic world curve problem (if such a world existed); 2/9th inch every 1/6th mile or 2/9in every second at 600MPH. Now we plug those numbers back into the original story of a plane flying 500Mi.

 500Mi = 3000 * 1/6Mi  which corresponds to 3000 * 2/9th" =~ 56 feet 

Or slightly less than 1 foot every minute! Imperceptible to a person on a plane without the use of instruments.

(At 500MPH the numbers change again to about 1/6" drop per second and therefore 47 ft over 500 miles, about 9" every minute! Nothing like Mr. Dubay's half mile claim.)

I can hear you saying, "But that was an extrapolation! Dubay interpolated. Surely that will give the same value as Dubay got." So let's try interpolating. If we use Dubay's formula for a flight of 1,000Mi. at 500MPH and 2 hours we get a "y" value (Dubay would say 'drop.') of 126Mi. which, interpolated to 1 hour, would be 63Mi. Or over 1 mile (5,555 Ft) every minute. That's twice what Dubay claimed it would be in his "proof." Such a route wouldn't take the plane around the curve of the world, it would take it through Dubay's parabolic planet!

So what does all of this mean? In the physical world it means nothing. It's just a demonstration that the bad math Dubay uses to bamboozle people produces crap results. The average value of a parabolic function is a meaningless number. A meaningless number used to support a baseless claim.

The Folly of Buying GameStop

I want to start by saying two things:

1) There are no true investors who own GameStop shares now and;

2) Bitcoin isn’t an investment. It is a speculative instrument at best and most closely resembles a method of gambling.

Let’s start with point #1: An investor buys a stock with a reasonable expectation of making money. A stock represents an ownership stake in a company and, as a part owner of the company, the investor would be entitled to a proportionate share of any company profits. GameStop has issued 69,746,960 shares. If you own one share you are entitled to 1/ 69,746,960th of the profits; that was $1.52 in 2018.

GameStop stopped paying dividends in March 2019. No profits to investors in about 2 years. At the time of the last dividend payment the stock was selling in the $12 - $14 range.

In the last fiscal year GameStop profits were in fact losses; -$4.76/share. The company lost close to $332,000,000 or about half of what the company was worth at the beginning of the year. Another year like last and the company will be a net value of Zero. Worthless. And Zero return to investors.

Any reasonable investor, looking at the possible loss of his investment in a failing business, would have taken the money and run before the end of January 2021 when speculators/gamblers were paying far beyond what an investor would reasonably expect. By the end of January all of the true investors would have sold their shares to people who are speculators and gamblers.

There is nothing wrong with speculating or gambling as long as you know that you’re doing it.

And that brings me to point #2, Bitcoin: I hear people referring to Bitcoin as an investment. It absolutely is not. Bitcoin is not based on any underlying asset or (potentially) profit-making endeavor. Of itself, it will never turn a profit, Bitcoin produces no saleable goods or services it will never pay a dividend. Placing money in Bitcoin pays no interest. The only thing you can reasonably do with Bitcoin is hope to sell it for more than you paid. In this last case it seems to be very like the present treatment of GameStop shares.

Here’s the difference. There was never anything behind Bitcoin, it was never intended to be an investment. Bitcoin is traded on unregulated exchanges and openly manipulated in ways that would be illegal on the regulated stock exchanges. Meanwhile, GameStop shares are attached to a business and traded in regulated financial markets.

Bitcoin will be traded as long as people want to trade it and as long as any unregulated cripto exchange exists, but not GameStop.

There is a slim chance that GameStop may stop the bleeding and survive in some smaller form or that some other corporation might see some value in the carcass of GameStop and suggest a buyout, offering a few cents or a dollar per share. This would require a vote from the shareholders so is unlikely to go through. If GameStop runs out of money and goes into receivership the shares will cease to trade on the financial markets and anyone left holding them will lose all they paid.

After gambling hundreds or thousands of dollars the owners won’t even have any Hockey Cards or Beanie Babies to look at.

Cycle Touring Tool Kit

 

Cycle Tour Tool Kit

Some folks asked me the other day what tools I carry on a long trip. Here's the speel:

Truly, you can do most roadside repairs with just a bicycle tool, tire irons, a $7.00 patch kit and a pump. But on a longer trip you won’t have access to those rarely used tools that you might have in your (or your buddy’s) garage. And you may be putting on more miles than usual, too. So you’ll probably need a few more tools than you’d carry on a Saturday near home.

I carry more tools than I really need for emergency use. The chain breaker and spare link I’ve only needed twice in 15 years of group rides, and never for my own bike. The loose Allen wrench is only because it’s easier to use than the bike tool on 1 type of adjustment; the same goes for the spoke wrench. The spare chain pieces I’ve never needed for fixing a chain, but I have used them plus hose clamps to make emergency fastenings. So everything here I’ve used at least once while on the road.

Photo

A) Chain links X 2

B) Chain breaker

C) Wire hook – to hold the chain when replacing a link

D) 10” chain

E) Electrical vinyl tape

F) Tie Wraps/zip ties

G) Velcro strap

H) Combo tire iron/ open end wrenches

J) Loose Allen key - 5mm

K) Bicycle tool (set of 2)

        Part 1

    #1 Philips screw driver

    Allen wrenches 6, 5, 4, 3, 2.5mm

    Tire iron

        Part 2

    Bottle opener

    3/16” Flat screw driver

    Serrated blade

    Box end wrenches 8, 9, 10, 12, 14mm

    Spoke wrenches (3 sizes) (3, 3.4, 3.45mm)

    Allen wrenches 2, 8mm

    Tire iron

L) Self adhesive tube patches

M) Spoke tool (3 sizes)

N) Hand pump c/w Schrader & Presta adapters

O) Pedal wrench

P) Multi tool

    Needle nose pliers

    Gripper jaws

    Wire cutter

    Knife

    Can opener

     Flat screw drivers 1/8”, 1/4”, 5/16”

    #0 Philips screw driver

     Awl/Drill

    File

Q) Pocket knife (half serrated)

R) Piece of inner tube

S) 6” crescent wrench

T) Multi-bit screw driver (5 bit)

#1, 2 Philips. 1/4” Flat. #2, 3 Robertson (There’s really no use for Robertson on a bike.)

U) Valve tool

V) Valve adapter

W) Presta ring

X) Small bungee

Y) Hose clamps

Z) Assorted bolts, washers, nuts.

        Also

Bit of sandpaper or emery board

Spare tube

Rag

Chain lube/Wax

Old tooth brush