Earlier in my writings I had pointed out that the Bible says that money is for protection. Now looks like it would be good time to have some. If you don't have any then start to working on getting some and/or saving some.
There has been a disturbance in the Middle East that has resulted in the cutting off of approximately 1/3 of "internationally traded" fertilizer. What portion of the total fertilizer market "1/3 of internationally traded fertilizer" is, remains a bit of a mystery to me. There is certainly domestically produced fertilizer in many countries. That said, there won't be as much to be internationally traded as there was.
Fertilizer is used to grow food crops for people as well as food crops for...well...for food - pigs, chickens, cows and such eat a lot of the crops grown in North America.
Many people have noticed increasing food prices in North America since 2020. In our part of the world the price of food has been increasing at a faster rate than general inflation. That is going to continue to be the case in the next year or so, or perhaps for the foreseeable future.
Urea & ammonia based fertilizer exports from the Middle East got cut at the beginning of March 2026. There would have been some stockpiles in the countries where these things were needed and there would have been some ships in transit. I'm going to guess that shortages would have started to appear in importing countries at the beginning of April. Assuming a 4 month growing season, food shortages will start to appear around the beginning of August. More people (as the population continues to grow) trying to get their share of less food means higher prices for those who have money and hunger or starvation for those who don't have money.
You can also expect to see increased migration of economic refugees from poorer countries as people seek food or the means to acquire it.
The government to our south seems to have indicated that that country doesn't want or need Canadian potash fertilizer which, until the present day, they have been buying at a rate of about 1,000,000 tons per month. They only produce about 5% of the potash they consume. Where will they import their fertilizer from? Or will that government allow crops to come in short? Or to fail?
The USA has been a net food exporter for many years though the reports I read say that the balance of exports to imports is shrinking. If the USA stops exporting, or starts importing, this will be an added strain on the world food economy.
Remember, in a time of inflation the dollars (or pesos) you have won't go as far in the future as they will today.
So, what to do?
First, don't panic. I'm just a guy at a desk, not an economist, food trader or seer. I don't have any special knowledge or access to hidden information. I write about money as a hobby. Take my advice with a grain of salt.
Food isn't going to disappear. We live in a rich country. Food will just get more expensive while the quality and variety will decrease.
So if you don't know how to cook, learn. Someone you know cooks; ask them to show you.
If you have the ability to can, pickle or preserve foods remember, prices are lowest during harvest season. Stock up while prices are relatively low.
Next, if food shortages do happen it would be a good idea to have some backup. Most governments recommend that people keep a 3 day supply of shelf-stable food in the house as a buffer against natural disasters. Not a bad idea. Some religious groups suggest 7 days. Some prepper groups suggest a year or a life-time's worth. I'm not a prepper so I do think there is such a thing as too much. Something as simple as storing an extra 10Kg bag of rice, a half dozen cans of fish or meat, some dried fruit and frozen or canned vegetables will keep a person on their feet for a month. Perhaps not very happily, but at least moving.
If you have a yard think about planting a garden. Fresh vegetables are better than anything that you might get from a can. Gardening also helps you realize just how much work farmers go through to produce the food that you eat every day. I've always found that digging in my tiny garden makes me appreciate where my food comes from.
Concluding:
Try to save some money.
Learn to cook.
Buy food during harvest season and preserve what you can.
Get and save a reasonable stock of non-perishables.
If you have space, plant a garden.
Good luck.
